The Deteriorating Conflicts in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and its Economic and Security Repercussions

 

Due to the military presence and influence in the region—China, Russia, and the United States, the conflict of the two of the most significant waterways, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, are tense. In spite of this intense attention, the area has never had a unified, consensus-building organization to address the common issues it faces. In order to address difficulties related to marine security, the Council of Arab and African States (now known as the RSC) was founded in February 2020 by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Yemen, and Jordan. Several of international organizations, most notably the United Nations and the European Union, as well as a number of commentators, have praised regional multilateralism as the best way to balance the security threats posed by the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden regions. 

Apart from promoting collaboration, communication, and a peaceful settlement of the long-running conflicts around the Red Sea, the international players—especially the European Union—have included the Horn of Africa in their plan. Additionally, they are ready to work with regionally oriented strategies, as those of the Council of Arab and African States concerning the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea (Council of the EU, 2021).

UN Chef de Cabinet Maria Luiza Ribeiro declared on August 20, 2021, that the UN will assist regional initiatives addressing marine security issues. On December 18, 2018, the foreign ministers of the Council of Arab and African States that border the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden—excluding Eritrea at the time—met with the aim of promoting cooperation among the involved parties and taking accountability for safeguarding the waterways (Saudi Press Agency, 2018). In February 2020, Eritrea joined the bloc when the member states of the RSC approved the charter that created the union. The nation's citizens made a crucial choice by acting in this way, despite rivalry with other countries and outside influence (FOI, 2023).

The countries of the Council of Arab and African States that border the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden have an urgent need for economic development in addition to security concerns. Regretfully, the protracted Yemeni crisis has resulted in a decline in members' economic cooperation. The anticipated economic growth has been hampered by the hostilities and proxy wars fought in Yemen between Iran and the coalition led by Saudi Arabia. The strategic significance of the Red Sea as a channel for maritime traffic and the economic impact of the Houthi strikes have aligned.

Originally, the Houthis attacked Israel in response for Israel's long-running conflict in Gaza, but their actions have put the global economy in jeopardy and increased the chance of shipping costs, which were already heavily inflating. The tension between Russia and Ukraine has intensified due to Europe's increasing dependence on the Gulf for petroleum, in addition to Israel's shutdown of its marine trade through the port of Eilat.

The global economy has suffered as a result of the US's counterreaction, which has made the situation worse. Israel has been involved in combat in Gaza since October 2023.Since then, the battle has grown far more intense and has extended to the Bab-al-Mandeb Straight, which is a crucial route for global trade, particularly between Europe, the Mediterranean region, and Asia. Israel is also connected to Houthi attack vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The conflicts have made Bab al-Mandeb a high-risk area for commercial ships (Middle East Council on Global Affairs, 2024).

Conclusion

With the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Gaza in October of last year, the fighting in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden has intensified dramatically. Israel recently started a counteroffensive against the Houthi following their bombardment of Yemen's port of Hodeidah. The main objective of Houthi is to strike Israel in response for Tel Aviv's protracted assaults on Gaza. Attacks by the Houthi group target military and commercial ships that are traveling to Israel in an effort to aid the defenseless Palestinians in Gaza. While the general public thinks that Iran backs Houthi, scholars contend that Houthi has its own goals and objectives and cannot be linked to Iran. In order to maintain regional coherence, coordination, and cooperation, institutions from the corporate and civil society sectors play a crucial role.

The CSOs and representatives of private sector institutions identified current opportunities and partnerships mainly related to socioeconomic development, research, technology, innovation, and capacity building; maritime and terrestrial matters; peace and security; and regional cohesion, coordination, and cooperation.

Given the strategic significance of the two waterways, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, the region should continue to be a hotspot. However, it is possible to reduce tensions if the country's members demonstrate political determination. Equally, the proxy war emanating from the big powers and their meddling should be denied in order to de-escalate the all-time high conflicts.

By Anwar Abdifatah Bashir
CEO & Editor-in-Chief. He is also a PhD Student in International Studies at the University of Nairobi.
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