The Ogaden region of Ethiopia, predominantly inhabited by ethnic Somalis,
has long been a contested and restive area, shaped by historical grievances,
border disputes, and the strategic interests of regional and global powers. The
growing tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, exacerbated by Ethiopia’s recent
diplomatic actions and military operations in Somaliland, have once again
brought the Ogaden into focus. As Ethiopia faces increasing opposition from the
Somali government and its new ally, Egypt, the Ogaden risks becoming a
flashpoint in the broader conflict between these Horn of Africa rivals. This
article explores the potential consequences of these tensions for the Ogaden
region, touching on historical grievances, the Ethiopian military buildup, and
the role of external powers.
Historical Context: Ogaden's Grievances and the
Ethiopia-Somalia Rivalry
The Ogaden region has historically been a site of
Ethiopian-Somali tension. The region's ethnic Somali population has long
expressed grievances over marginalization by the central Ethiopian government,
with calls for greater autonomy or even secession. These tensions erupted into
full-scale conflict during the 1977-78 Ogaden War, when Somalia under Siad
Barre invaded the region, seeking to incorporate it into Greater Somalia.
Although Ethiopia, with the assistance of Soviet and Cuban forces, repelled the
invasion, the war left deep scars and entrenched a cycle of insurgencies and
brutal crackdowns in the Ogaden.
Since then, the Ogaden has been a hotbed of resistance
to Ethiopian rule, with groups such as the Ogaden National Liberation Front
(ONLF) waging an armed struggle for independence. Although the ONLF formally
renounced violence in 2018 and entered into peace talks with the Ethiopian
government, deep-seated tensions remain. Heavy-handed military tactics often
maintain the Ethiopian state's control over the Ogaden, exacerbating local grievances
and fostering a sense of alienation among the Somali population.
Ethiopia's Geopolitical Strategy
and the Ogaden Build-Up
In recent years, Ethiopia’s strategy in the Horn of
Africa has become increasingly uncertain, particularly under Prime Minister Abiy
Ahmed. Ethiopia’s recent deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland to
establish a 20km naval and commercial base on the northern Somali coast in
exchange for recognition of Somaliland’s independence has escalated tensions
with Somalia. This move threatens to redraw the geopolitical landscape of the
region, undermining Somalia’s territorial integrity and increasing the risk of
military confrontation.
In response to Ethiopia’s actions, Somalia has sought
new alliances, most notably with Egypt and Turkey. Egypt, which has a
long-standing rivalry with Ethiopia, particularly over control of Nile waters,
has committed to sending troops and military hardware to Somalia, further
heightening the regional stakes. The growing Ethiopia-Somalia-Egypt triangle is
rapidly militarizing the Horn of Africa, and the Ogaden region is at the center
of these developments.
As tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia escalated in
August 2024, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) initiated a
significant military build-up in the Ogaden region, reportedly deploying troops
and armored vehicles to the Somali border. Ethiopia likely intends this move to
counter the increasing presence of Somali and Egyptian forces in the area and
to maintain Ethiopia's strategic hold over the region.
The Ogaden as a Strategic Buffer
One cannot overstate the strategic importance of the
Ogaden to Ethiopia. The region serves as a buffer zone between Ethiopia and
Somalia, acting as a bulwark against any Somali irredentism or external
military incursions. The Ethiopian government has consistently viewed control
over the Ogaden as essential to its national security, particularly given the
region’s proximity to the volatile Somali border and the presence of insurgent
groups like al-Shabaab in southern Somalia.
Ethiopia’s military buildup in the Ogaden is therefore
not only a response to the Somali-Egyptian alliance but also a preemptive move
to secure its interests in the face of potential destabilization. The presence
of Ethiopian troops in key areas of Somalia, such as Gedo, Hiiraan, Bay, and
Bakool, underscores Ethiopia’s determination to maintain its military footprint
in the region, even as the Somali government demands their withdrawal by
January 2025. This creates the possibility of a protracted military standoff or
even an open confrontation between Ethiopian and Somali-Egyptian forces.
The Humanitarian and Political Consequences for the
Ogaden
The militarization of the Ogaden region raises serious
concerns about the humanitarian and political consequences for the local
population. Human rights abuses, such as arbitrary arrests, torture, and
village destruction, have historically marked the Ethiopian government's
military campaigns in the region. A renewed military buildup could lead to
similar abuses, exacerbating the already fragile humanitarian situation in the
region.
Moreover, the increased presence of Ethiopian troops
in the Ogaden risks inflaming local sentiments against the central government.
The ethnic Somali population in the region has long harbored resentment over
what they perceive as economic marginalization and political exclusion.
The Ethiopian government's heavy-handed response to
any signs of unrest in the Ogaden could further alienate the local population,
potentially reigniting insurgent activity.
In addition, the involvement of external powers,
particularly Egypt, could complicate the internal dynamics of the Ogaden.
Egypt’s support for the Somali government and its growing influence in the
region may embolden local Somali actors to resist Ethiopian control. This could
lead to the emergence of new alliances between Ogaden Somali factions and
external actors, further destabilizing the region.
The Role of External Powers: Egypt, Eritrea, and
Regional Security
The involvement of external powers such as Egypt and
Eritrea further complicate the situation in the Ogaden. Egypt’s decision to
supply arms and send 10,000 troops to Somalia represents a significant
escalation in the Horn of Africa’s power dynamics. For Ethiopia, Egypt’s growing
influence in Somalia is particularly alarming given the longstanding Nile River
dispute between the two countries. Ethiopia is unlikely to tolerate the
presence of Egyptian troops so close to Ogaden's border, and Ogaden could
become the site of proxy battles between the two regional powers.
Eritrea, a close ally of Ethiopia and a rival of both
Egypt and Somalia, also plays a crucial role in this equation. Eritrea has
reportedly met with Egyptian officials to coordinate their strategy in the Horn
of Africa. This creates a complex web of alliances and rivalries, with the
Ogaden potentially becoming a battleground for regional power struggles.
Conclusion: A Region on the Brink
The Ethiopian military buildup in the Ogaden reflects
the strategic importance of the region to Ethiopia’s national security, but it
also raises the risk of further destabilization and conflict. The involvement
of external powers, combined with the region’s historical grievances and
political marginalization, creates a volatile situation that could easily
spiral out of control.
As the Horn of Africa faces the prospect of a broader interstate conflict, the Ogaden stands at the crossroads of geopolitical ambition and ethnic resistance. Without careful diplomacy and a commitment to addressing the root causes of local grievances, the Ogaden could once again become a flashpoint in the region’s long history of conflict. The international community will need to pay close attention to developments in this critical region to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe and a further escalation of hostilities.
By Mohamed Ibrahim Abdullahi
HOA political analyst and humanitarian professional with over nine years of expertise in project management, food security and livelihoods, and disaster risk reduction.
