A Fragile Balance
Climate change is no longer a distant concern
for Somalia; it is a lived reality that directly affects the nation's social
fabric, economy, and security. With its arid to semi-arid climate, Somalia has
faced unprecedented climate disruptions, particularly over the past two years.
As the nation grapples with both environmental and socio-political crises,
understanding how climate change intersects with peace and security in Somalia
is essential for building a sustainable future.
The Harsh Realities of Climate Change in
Somalia
Somalia has a unique climate profile, char
acterized by
highly variable rainfall and extreme weather conditions, including severe
droughts and periodic floods. From 2021 to 2023, Somalia experienced its worst
drought on record, with five consecutive failed rainy seasons, a crisis that displaced
hundreds of thousands of people and threatened famine in several regions.
This extreme weather event significantly undermined
local livelihoods, most of which rely on climate-sensitive agropastoralism.
In Somalia, 72% of the population depends on agriculture
and livestock. The sector is highly vulnerable to climatic disruptions such as
prolonged droughts and unpredictable rain patterns. Crop failures, dwindling
water sources, and livestock deaths have become increasingly common. For
example, as of 2022, one-third of livestock in the most drought-affected
regions had perished (Climate Peace and Security). With the majority of Somali
households dependent on agropastoralism, these climatic shocks have direct,
devastating consequences for food security, making communities more vulnerable
to famine and conflict.
Climate-Driven Displacement and Migration
Climate change is also a significant driver of
displacement and migration within Somalia. Climate-related disasters displaced
more than one million Somalis in 2022 alone.
This migration primarily occurs from rural to urban
and peri-urban areas, particularly to cities like Mogadishu and Baidoa,
contributing to one of the fastest urbanization rates on the African continent
(Climate Peace and Security). Many internally displaced persons (IDPs) live in
informal settlements, which lack basic services and expose residents to further
risks of exploitation and violence.
Displacement adds another layer to Somalia's
socio-political vulnerabilities. As climate-induced migration increases,
communities face heightened competition over scarce resources like water and
pasture, exacerbating local tensions and inter-clan conflicts. Drought and
conflict disrupt seasonal migration patterns in rural areas like Galmudug
State, leading to disputes over access to pasture and water, which can escalate
into violent clashes.
Climate Change as a Conflict Multiplier
Somalia's longstanding political instability and the
presence of armed groups like al-Shabab complicate efforts to address the
impacts of climate change. Climate change is rarely the primary cause of
conflict but acts as a conflict multiplier by exacerbating existing tensions.
The convergence of climate change and violent conflict undermines local
economies and disrupts household security (Climate Peace and Security).
Armed groups, such as al-Shabab, have increasingly
adapted their strategies to exploit climate-related crises. During the most
recent drought, al-Shabab took advantage of the weakened state to challenge
government relief efforts, destroy vital infrastructure like wells, and tax
drought-affected communities (Climate Peace and Security).
This opportunistic exploitation of disaster conditions
further undermines community resilience and disrupts peacebuilding efforts. In
some regions, military operations against al-Shabab have also limited herders'
access to traditional grazing grounds, worsening the livelihoods of already
vulnerable populations (Climate Peace and Security).
Gender and Vulnerability
The impact of climate change in Somalia is not
gender-neutral. Climate shocks disproportionately affect women and children,
who make up an estimated 80% of displaced populations. Particularly in rural
areas, women encounter obstacles to land ownership and frequently miss out on
resource management decision-making processes.
This leaves them more vulnerable to exploitation,
displacement, and violence during periods of climate-induced crises.
Climate-related stresses also exacerbate pre-existing gender inequalities,
hampering efforts to build gender-sensitive climate adaptation strategies.
Building Resilience: The Path Forward
Addressing the nexus of climate change, peace, and
security in Somalia requires a multi-sectoral and coordinated approach. The
United Nations Security Council, Somali government, and international partners
have acknowledged the need for strategies that incorporate climate risks into
security planning. The establishment of early warning systems, improving the
capacity of local governments to manage natural resources, and promoting
gender-sensitive resilience strategies are key areas of focus.
In the rural agropastoral communities, nature-based
solutions such as improving water access and sustainable land management
practices can strengthen ecosystems and support local livelihoods. There is
also an urgent need for cross-sector collaboration to address both short-term
humanitarian priorities and long-term resilience-building efforts. Programs
that build the capacity of Somali institutions to respond to climate risks,
such as the Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM), are vital
for effective disaster risk reduction.
Conclusion
In Somalia, the inseparable links between climate
change, peace, and security highlight the complexity of addressing the country’s
multifaceted challenges. Climate change, by exacerbating existing
vulnerabilities and conflicts, poses a grave threat to the stability and future
of Somali communities. However, through integrated strategies that address
climate adaptation, conflict prevention, and economic resilience, Somalia can
mitigate these risks and build a more sustainable, peaceful future.
As climate change continues to reshape the socio-political landscape, ensuring that peace and security strategies are climate-informed is not just necessary for Somalia’s survival but for its progress toward lasting stability.
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