A Strategic Overview of the landed town (Raskamboni)
By Mohamed Yusuf Mohamed: A PhD. Candidate at Ndejje University in Uganda.
Raskamboni, a coastal town situated on the Kenya-Somalia border within the Badhadhe District of Somalia's Lower Juba region, holds significant geopolitical and historical importance. In 1999, US intelligence agencies identified Raskamboni as a potential training ground for Al-Qaeda-linked extremists and a hub for advanced communications equipment. This revelation raised alarms about the town's role in facilitating terrorist activities.
Following the 9/11 attacks, US concerns about the Horn of Africa intensified, with Raskamboni emerging as a focal point. In December 2001, US officials expressed interest in monitoring potential escape routes for Al-Qaeda operatives through the region. In 2002, a Pentagon briefing further highlighted Raskamboni's potential as a base for Islamic terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and Al-Ittihaad al-Islamiyah. The establishment of the Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA)` in the same year underscored the US commitment to counterterrorism efforts in the region. Raskamboni's strategic location has linked it to major terrorist attacks, including the 1998 US embassy bombings and the 2002 Mombasa hotel bombing. This association underscores the town's crucial role in the broader context of regional security and counterterrorism operations.
According to the US claims, Raskanboni served as a base for the militant group Al-Ittihad al-Islamiya and the Western Somali Liberation Front (WSLF), a Somali movement active in eastern Ethiopia. This period, roughly between 1993 and 2005, coincided with the rise of Islamic courts in Mogadishu. Ahmed Madobe, who later became the president of Jubbaland, was indeed a prominent figure in the Al-Ittihad al-Islamiya movement, and he resided in Raskamboni during his time with the group.
Government’s Possible Mindset
Raskamboni, where the Somali Federal Government forces are currently deployed is positioned near the Al-Shabaab-controlled Badhaadhe district. Jubbaland forces based in Burgabo are reportedly preparing for a potential offensive against the Federal Government's troops in Raaskanboni. The Federal Government's strategic goal is to capture Badhaadhe, a key district that controls several smaller towns. If the FGS forces successfully seized the Badhaadhe District, this move could potentially facilitate Jubbaland forces in Burgabo, Kudhaa, and Bula haji to surrender since Badhaadhe is centrally located within its district, serving as a significant point of reference. It is situated approximately 96 kilometers away from Raaskaaboni, which is a notable distance that indicates its relative isolation from this larger area. Additionally, Badhaadhe is 69 kilometers from Kudhaa where Jubbaland troops maintain control and 68 kilometers from Bulo haji. Furthermore, it is also 63 kilometers away from Burgabo. These distances illustrate the connectivity and accessibility of Badhaadhe to surrounding areas, which may be important for logistical and administrative purposes.
The escalating tensions are further complicated by the call for Jubbaland troops to integrate into the Somali National Army (SNA) and receive formal salaries. However, many of these soldiers have not been granted formal rights by the Jubbaland administration, leading to considerable dissatisfaction. As hundreds of Jubbaland soldiers joined the SNA in Raskanbooni, this shift has benefited the FGS, disrupted communication networks and diminishing interactions with Jubbaland forces.
The government is intensifying its efforts to convince the President of Jubbaland to nullify and reconsider his decision on the recent election held in Kismayo to give up to run for a third term in the upcoming presidential election. This pressure aims to encourage him to return to the negotiation table and ultimately relinquish his candidacy.
Figure 1The map highlights a tense situation in the Lower Juba region of Somalia.
Escalation of Tensions
Madobe's recent re-election has significantly escalated tensions between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Jubbaland administration. The FGS has rejected the legitimacy of the Jubbaland elections, citing electoral irregularities and a failure to adhere to the agreed-upon electoral framework. This rejection has resulted in a standoff with both sides mobilizing their forces. The conflict poses serious risks to security in Somalia, particularly concerning the ongoing threat from Al-Shabaab. Furthermore, increased hostilities could lead to a humanitarian crisis, as civilians may become trapped in the conflict and face displacement from their homes.
Analysts believe that the Somali government's actions may aim to extend the border between Kenya and Somalia, focusing on towns such as Raskamboni, Kulbio, Doobley, and Diif. The FGS seeks to liberate the Badhaadhe district as a strategic point for further expansion, including the capture of coastal areas. Ultimately, the goal appears to be to pressure the Jubbaland leader into abandoning his presidential claims and returning to the negotiating table.
Challenges to Military Action
Despite these ambitions, several factors hinder the FGS's ability to attack Kismayo:
- Geographical Challenges: Raskanbooni is approximately 274 km from Kismayo, and the primary land route is obstructed by forests that have not been used recently. Additionally, the Badhaadhe district, which the road passes through, is controlled by Al-Shabaab, along with several surrounding smaller towns. These factors render a land invasion impractical.
- Maritime Difficulties: Accessing Kismayo by sea is also complex. There are no direct coastal roads connecting Kismayo and Raskanbooni due to numerous channels that intersect the dryland, creating a significant barrier of about 40 km. This lack of direct connectivity further complicates any potential military operations.
Conclusion
The policy landscape in Somalia appears to lack coherent principles. To illustrate this assertion, we can reflect on the Jubbaland elections of 2019. During the 2019 election, the federal government of Somalia denied the legitimacy of the process. however, the opposition led by Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and other leaders congratulated Ahmed Madobe on his second re-election. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s team even attended the Ahmed madobe’s presidential ceremony in Kismayo. Fast forward to last month, we witnessed a situation reminiscent of the 2019 elections. The key difference now is that Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is the president, whereas previously he was an opponent. His support for Ahmed Madobe at that time stemmed from their mutual opposition to Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, the former president of Somalia. This shift in roles highlights the fluidity and inconsistency in Somali political alliances, further emphasizing the lack of principled governance in the country.
As tensions continue to rise between the FGS and Jubbaland, it is crucial to prioritize dialogue and seek a peaceful resolution to avoid exacerbating an already volatile situation. The Jubbaland community must play an active role in facilitating negotiations to ensure stability in the region and prevent further humanitarian crises.
